The Fourth Turning

I saw a book report by "the spirited man" on YouTube I really like how it explains everything watch the video before you decide to buy it.

The book explains a fascinating concept to forecast the collective future. It requires a slow and attentive reading to follow the reasoning. It is an enriching exercise to read this book.

Not my cup of tea

Livro fantástico sobre os ciclos da história. Poderia ter sido escrito ontem. Muito atual e esclarecedor.

いま、「第四の節目、アメリカの預言」(The Fourth Turning, An American Prophecy) に注目している。このような考えかたもあるのかと、感心し、またちょっと畏怖の念も感じている。この本はおよそいまから20年前に書かれたものであるが、時代の転換期である現代をよく言い表している面が多い。「サイキュラム」という考えかた、そして、「節目」を鵜呑みにする必要はないが、少なくとも、いまは第四の節目「危機」の時代、古い秩序・価値観がくずれ、新しいものにとって置き換えられる時代、新しい価値観が植え付けられる時代の曲がり角にいる、ということを頭の片隅にいれておかねばならないかもしれない。

Uppdatering till min tidigare recension. Boken kom fram till slut efter lång leveranstid och betald tullavgift. Blev kontaktad av säljaren och fick tullavgiften återbetald vilket var bra gjort och snabbt hanterat. Plus för hanteringen av Book Depository, men segt att beställa om varorna först ska fastna i tullen. Amazon.se borde vara tydligare kring detta.

The book is highly informative and indeed provides the broad contours of what was to come in the 2000s as and 2010s. It's fascinating to go back in time and try to understand the view of the present 30 years in the past. The 'catalyst' that occurs at or near the beginning of the fourth turning (after the Unraveling has fully unraveled) I took to be the Great Financial Crisis circa 2008/09. The climax, some have suggested, is the pandemic and broad social upheaval that has accompanied it. I don't think that's the case, and the climax has yet to arrive. The book predicts the end-event(s) of the fourth turning would occur anywhere between 2020 and 2026 -- and recall, each of the previous fourth-turning climaxes were man-made *socially* transformative events, mostly wars (Revolution, Civil etc). You could make an argument that Jan. 6 is perhaps the transformative climax of this turning, but it's not a convincing one. I would love to get the surviving author's opinion on whether or not the Crisis climax is yet to come, and whether he foresees the turning ending well, or badly. Both outcomes are possible as the book says; one will lead to a new optimistic and productive High period (post-WW2 boom) the other toward a new 'first turning' that will be quite different than our current era, and not for the better for most of us.

This is a very detailed book written in the 90s about a theory of how generations change in repeated cycles. It makes predictions about the present that seem surprisingly accurate. It is worth reading for a different take on history.