World Without Work

Daniel Susskind reminds his readers that automation either replaces or complements human beings. In other words, automation not only affects the amount of available work, but also the nature of that work. The ongoing impact of increasing automation on both the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in advanced economies since the first industrial revolution can give us a glimpse of what will be in store for the service sector.Both agriculture and manufacturing now employ far less workers than they once did. Most of the resulting ‘labor surplus’ has gradually migrated first from agriculture to manufacturing and subsequently from manufacturing to the sector of services. Furthermore, what the remaining workers employed in these two fast-evolving sectors do is increasingly different from what their predecessors did. In addition, these workers continuously have to upgrade their skills to remain employed in both sectors.The service sector that now employs most people in advanced economies will gradually share a fate similar to the one that is applicable to the agriculture and manufacturing sectors under the pressure of further automation. Mr. Susskind repeatedly stresses that too many people hold a simplistic view of both automation and frictional, structural technological unemployment: Machines cannot be taught to perform “non-routine” tasks, because people struggle to explain how they perform them. The author clearly demonstrates that machines process information and data differently and more efficiently than most human beings do. None of these machines have gained an ‘artificial general intelligence’. These machines display an ‘artificial narrow intelligence.’Here follow a few examples for illustration purposes:1) DeepMind has created a program that can diagnose over fifty eye diseases with an error rate of only 5.5%. It performs as well as the best clinical experts out there.2) JP Morgan has developed a system that reviews commercial loan agreements, resulting in a saving of about 360,000 hours of human lawyers’ time.3) IBM’s Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov at playing chess.Mr. Susskind invites human beings to start thinking about the residual tasks that will remain for them:1) Tasks that prove impossible to automate.2) Tasks that are possible but unprofitable to automate.3) Tasks that are both possible and profitable to automate but remain restricted to human beings due to regulatory or cultural barriers that societies build around them.This gradual substitution will oblige governments in advanced economies to address three key, related issues: Inequality, power, and purpose. What will these technologically unemployed people do in a winner-take-all environment that further increases income / wealth inequality? How will these (former or would be) workers be compensated if traditional jobs are out of reach for them? What will the purpose of the welfare state be in a world where machines take over many tasks that were previously deemed out of reach for automation? Will unscrupulous populists mobilize this new ‘proletariat’ for their own nefarious purposes either domestically and/or across borders?The diminishing employment rate among lower-qualified men say in the U.S. reflects a multi-dimensional mismatch: 1) Skills, 2) identity, and 3) place. Up-skilling has clearly failed to address this mismatch, despite the claims of too many out-of-touch policymakers. The lack of gainful employment among these men makes them both unproductive and potentially dangerous to the stability of the society at large.In a world with less paid work, taxation of workers, capital, and big businesses will be a critical mechanism in addressing to some extent the increasing income / wealth inequality. A conditional basic income (CBI) will be the only palatable solution to the haves. The universal basic income (UBI) smells too much of a free lunch for moochers. The CBI will allow the ‘non-traditional’ workers to find new meaning and purpose in life, while providing more stability and security to the taxed ‘traditional’ workers, capital, and big businesses. Sustenance and entertainment provided by government to appease public discontent has not lost its potency since Antiquity.In summary, nothing in life can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and the relentless process of machine-driven task encroachment.

The author gave us a practical insight of a possible future without significant political partiality. Numerous points are left unclear but this book gives you a general vision of what lies ahead.

In times where there are lmany books, articles, etc. related to Digital Transformation this book fills a gap in the sense that once we reach new levels of automation what will happen to the current structure of our society, the author explains that it requires to change too.So, according to the author, in the future, due to technological changes, there will be not enough work for everyone.Susskind also argues that we need to find a way to deal with the each time more growing political power of tech companies not only their economic power.And in a future with less work and more free time, the nature of work will also change, and people will need to find a new meaning in life.We are accustomed until now, says the author, to technology replacing human work or complementing human work, in the future technology will be replacing human work rather than complementing it.The author concludes that in the future, technology will raise the problems of inequality, political power, and life purpose.The author states that a new Big State must deal with the distribution issue to address inequality, and that we will require an oversight authority to deal with the political power of tech companies, and we also need to create new institutions to support people jobless, with less job and with more free time.The author exemplifies the above with new emerging capabilities in technology that are nothing like human intelligence in any manner, so technology will find new ways to do our jobs.And interesting book with a visionary look into the future.Enjoy it!

Daniel Susskind, together with his brother Jamie, and their father, Richard, are AI evangelists who preach the end of the world – sort of – for human-centred work. This family has been preaching, en masse, the importance of AI. They are not wrong although there are areas in which they may have overstated their case. This book is well written and is of a wider scope than the other Susskind books. In the next five to ten years, not only will a lot of jobs be rendered otiose by technology, but also by the Coronavirus. In many cases, many jobs that remain will have altered, if not in substance, certainly in the way they are done. So, in that sense, ‘A World Without Work’ is not revolutionary or revelatory, although Susskind likes to think so. He says at p. 183 that ‘To deal with technological unemployment, we will need what I call a conditional basic income – CBI for short’. But CBI is not his creation. It has been the subject of many economic debates long before this book. See the paper on ‘(Un)conditional Basic Income’ by Jan Van Cauwnberghe, Niklas Mannfolk, Jan Klesla, January 2018, for example. Nonetheless, the book discusses interesting issues and although the philosophical underpinnings are there, the idea of work and meaning has a lot more to be discussed, and picking the odd bits to emphasise the importance of technology is inadequate. One area that requires serious consideration, and not sufficiently touched on in this book, is the political question, how will society support the masses who are out of work? Susskind partially discusses this in the last five pages of the book, but they relate to what he claims to be the CBI solution that ‘he proposed’.

The book expects that within about one hundred years robots will replace a lot of what we do in our various work tasks, and discusses what will we do and how should we prepare to this era. The arguments as to the expected ability of robots is based on extrapolation, and remind me of the predictions issued during the 1950s according to which at the end of the 20th century there would be no sicknesses, and the transportations will be by flying cars.

With a clear and deep vision of the challenge of the Future of Work, Daniel Susskind leads the reader to a well thought understanding of the Economic and Social theory underneath the changes in the labour market.Pays good attention into the ALM hypothesis with a good dialogue on effects and the general impact of AI. Also brings consideration on the UBI proposal, with his own alternative of a Conditional BI.Transcending the economic challenge, there is also the psychological condition of those in need to flourish through leisure and having a purpose beyond the job - once it may be lost.Institutions and corporations - with their leaders - pay attention. Parents, educators, policy makers, pay attention. The FOW is the issue of the 21st century.

Good quality print. Fun read!

Tema quanto mai necessario, ed una interessante riflessione sul futuro che ci attende.

Technology is shaping future of work ,replacing human requirement at it. Need to prepare human in an environment where there will be little or no work and this environment is arriving sooner than what we are assuming right now. Till now, meaning of life has been directly associated with work, working to earn a livelihood.However in time to come, the meaning is expected to undergo major change , humankind will have to look out for a completely new meaning in life,a purpose that is no longer associated with work as there will not be many. The challenges on how the State needs to prepare the society for sharing of income and maintaining social order will be a priority role. How big technogical company will influence society,politics and our conduct is bought up so correctly in this book. Leisure management will be a subject of teaching and efforts should be on from schooling level in order to prepare us for this eventuality . A must read no doubt, the author has indeed done deep work on this very relevant but somehow neglected and grossly overlooked emerging scenario of the FUTURE OF WORK.

One of the best books I have read on the subject so far. Susskind clears up some wrong assumptions that are often repeated in other books on AI and the future of work. In addition a very clear language, wonderfully sorted arguments and entertainingly written. Very clear recommendation.